Professor and Director, Institute for Geospatial Research & Education, Eastern Michigan University, USA

Speech Title: Temporal Analysis of Coupled Driving Factors of Hulun Lake Environmental Deterioration in Inner Mongolia, China

Abstract: Hulun Lake, also known as Hulun Pool or Dalai Lake, is the fifth largest inland lake in China and the largest lake in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. However, in recent years, Hulun Lake is experiencing a severe decrease in its water level and a drastic increase in its salinity. The water quality and surrounding environment of Hulun Lake are deteriorating, which threatens ecological stability of the Hulun Buir grassland. In this paper, we identified change dynamics of the Hulun Lake water area and its surrounding wetland landscape since 1999 by using the 3S technology (remote sensing, geographic information system, and field surveying including global positioning system). We also collected socioeconomic statistics and meteorological records in its surrounding counties and constructed an integrated dataset to investigate coupled human-nature effects on the lake area and its surrounding environmental change. In addition to the variables of lake area and wetland area derived from remote sensing, the socioeconomic indices included real GDP per capita, farm income as share of county GDP, arable area density, grain density per unit of area, livestock density, highway density, population density, rural population share, local government revenue as share of GDP, and investment spending as share of GDP. The meteorological factors contained barometric pressure, precipitation, vapor, humidity, sunshine hour, temperature, and wind speed. We developed a panel regression model to estimate responses of lake area and wetland area to the coupled climate factors and socioeconomic indicators across 4 counties from 1999 to 2016. We also advanced analysis of coupled impacts by allowing for extreme climate changes and by incorporating lagged time effects for the dependent variable. Our findings confirmed that the water area of Hulun Lake and its surrounding wetlands reached the peak around 2000 and were gradually shrinking afterward. Our findings also provided strong evidence that the lake and surrounding wetland areas responded significantly to variations in both climate factors and socioeconomic variables; displayed significant annual and regional variations; and revealed cumulative influences from prior climate conditions and extreme climate fluctuations.